NFL Draft Fun…….

Well….all this talk about the draft made me want to play a little game. What if you went back

deware.jpg

to the 2005 NFL Draft and looked at the top 15 picks (as just a small sample) and rated where they SHOULD have gone based on the production, or lack thereof, of the player. This seems like a fair amount of time to judge a player, four years to adjust, learn the system, condition and train under the watchful eye of some of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the world and be taught by some of the best head coaches and coordinators in the world. So I will list the player in order they were drafted and list a comment or two and then state my “unofficial” adjusted value (if we were drafting today, knowing what they would do – how unfair, I know, but still fun) And, here we go……….

1. San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith, QB (Utah)
 - 4 seasons, 4 coordinators; re-structured contract to avoid being released by team.
ADJUSTED VALUE: 5th Round Pick

2. Miami Dolphins – Ronnie Brown, RB (Auburn)
 - 67.3 yards per game, overcame major knee injury to be solid contributor.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Late 1st Round Pick

3. Cleveland Browns – Braylon Edwards, WR (Michigan)
 - Pro Bowl in 2007, took step back last season, still a dangerous playmaker.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Top 15 pick

4. Chicago Bears – Cedric Benson, RB (Texas)
 - 2,340 career rushing yards, released by team after multiple arrests.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Undrafted rookie free agent

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, RB (Auburn)
 - NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, knee injuries slowed him; a feature back when healthy.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Top 10 pick

6. Tennessee Titans – Adam “Pac Man” Jones, DB (West Virginia)
 - Well known story here. NO COMMENT.
ADJUSTED VALUE: 6th Round pick

7. Minnesota Vikings – Troy Williamson, WR (South Carolina)
 -  4 seasons, 4 career touchdown receptions, penchant for dropped passes.
ADJUSTED VALUE: 5th Round pick

8. Arizona Cardinals – Antrell Rolle, CB (Miami)
 - Starter for NFC Champs, top 10 in interceptions in 2007.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Top 15 pick

9. Washington Redskins – Carlos Rogers, CB (Auburn)
 - Part-time starter for ‘Skins, 5 career interceptions.
ADJUSTED VALUE: 2nd Round pick

10. Detroit Lions – Mike Williams, WR (USC)
 - 2 career touchdowns, released by Titans; out of football.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Undrafted rookie free agent

11. Dallas Cowboys – Demarcus Ware, OLB (Troy)
 - All-Pro, 2nd in Defensive player of the Year voting in 2008, dominant force in the game.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Top 5 pick

12. San Diego Chargers – Shawne Merriman, OLB (Maryland)
 - Pro Bowl and All Pro player, injured last year but one of the top sack artists in the game.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Top 5 pick

13. New Orleans Saints – Jamaal Brown, OL (Oklahoma)
 - 2 time Pro Bowl lineman, solid starter for Saints.
ADJUSTED VALUE: Top 10 pick

14. Carolina Panthers – Thomas Davis, LB (Georgia)
 - Starter for Panthers’ D, 9.5 career sacks.
ADJUSTED VALUE: 2nd Round pick

15. Kansas City Chiefs – Derrick Johnson, LB (Texas)
 - Starter for Chiefs’ D, solid tackler and contributor.
ADJUSTED VALUE: 2nd Round pick

So, that’s just the TOP 15. And just my opinion, but only a total of 5 Pro-Bowl players in that group, a 33% percent rate, which is very bad compared to the amount of guaranteed money paid to all of those players. 

Here is the Pro-Bowl breakdown by rounds:

  • 1st Round: 7
  • 2nd Round: 4
  • 3rd Round: 2
  • 4th Round: 2 (including Marion Barber III)
  • 5th – 7th Round: 3 (including Jay Ratliff)

Some of the other notable players drafted that year include Lofa Tatupu, LB, Seattle Seahawks (2nd Round), Frank Gore, RB, SF 49ers (3rd Round), Justin Tuck, DE, NY Giants (3rd Round) and Matt Cassell, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (7th Round).

Just a fun little thing to do, it is so easy to look back in hindsight, whether you are scrutinizing Jerry Jones as a General Manager, or any other NFL General Manager. It is the product of scouting departments, hype, desire, money and a multitude of other things that determine which players get drafted where, and why they succeed or fail.

All in all, a CRAP SHOOT!! I am just glad our picks for the 2005 draft: D-Ware, MB3 and Jay Ratliff turned out so well!

COWBOYS FAN FOR LIFE – TD 
   

Comments
  1. nate

    awesome perspective td! 33%….holy cow….months and months of investigation is still needed to make the best educated guess, but in the end, a crap shoot indeed…

  2. TD

    Yeah, and it’s amazing how many quality players can be found deep in the draft. Maybe some of the guys you are shooting for can turn out for us. Let’s hope so….

  3. Kelly Horn

    Excellent job TD! Love this post. Its amazing how things turn out. Luckily 05 was one of our best drafts, wouldnt change a thing!

  4. Raina

    great blog TD! Wow you did alot of research!